Monday, March 20, 2017

March Madness Fantasy 2017 - Round of 32

Two more days of basketball have elapsed, sands through the hourglass, more of our lives taken from us, a death by a thousand cuts. It really makes you question... who were the top seven studs and duds from the second round of the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament?


THE STUDS

OWNER ROUND SELECTION PLAYER TEAM SEED GAME2_SCORE
1 James 6 54 Trevon Bluiett Xavier 11 55.0
2 Gav 8 72 Miles Bridges Michigan St 9 48.5
3 Shawn 5 43 Jacorey Williams Middle Tenn 12 44.5
4 Stu 5 46 Bryant McIntosh Northwestern 8 43.0
5 Gav 5 49 Ethan Happ Wisconsin 8 39.5
6 Brian 3 21 Caleb Swanigan Purdue 4 38.0
7 Jake 3 28 Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 5 36.0

You can do it, put your Bluiett to it! (Rhyming "it" with "it" was one of Ice Cube's greatest lyrical feats.) Gav, Shawn, Stu, and Jake also got nice performances from their players' swan song.


THE DUDS

OWNER ROUND SELECTION PLAYER TEAM SEED GAME2_SCORE
1 Chris 4 36 Hassan Martin Rhode Island 11 0.5
2 Stu 8 75 Carlton Bragg Kansas 1 1.0
3 Dan 4 31 Quentin Snider Louisville 2 3.0
4 Gav 7 69 Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. Baylor 3 5.0
5 James 3 27 Mikal Bridges Villanova 1 6.0
6 Shawn 4 38 Isaiah Briscoe Kentucky 2 8.0
7 James 8 74 Giddy Potts Middle Tenn 12 8.0

Holy moly, look at all these jerks! I double-checked to be sure, and these sucks really did suck this much! Martin and Snider were each responsible for their team failing to advance. Carlton Bragg is Carlton Bragg. The Baylor tall dude only attempted three shots.

And despite the poor outing from the Rhode Island Ram, Chris has claimed the seat of the catbirds.



He's got 7 student-athletes left, and is seated on the seat despite getting only 23 points TOTAL from his second-round pick of UNC's Joel Berry II. Remember how I joked about Frankenberry last round? Hilarious. His biggest point totals have been generated by his seven-seed stars from Michigan and South Carolina. Improbable!


Jake fell to fourth place, and has only three men remaining. Conner Frankamp, yikes. Jake got 17.5 points out of that loser, who played TWO games with the BONUS MULTIPLIER. The best thing about Frankamp this year was him inspiring that Frankenberry joke from the last round. God, that was so funny.

Here's a look at how the owned players are doing:




And here's a look at the worst performances of the tourney. This shows every player we drafted or were likely to draft (a top two or three scorer from their team). Joel Berry II is the 150th ranked player out of 179. Jake has two of these bottom-feeders, and that's not going to get it done in March, friend. Canyon Barry isn't lighting it up, but he's still alive, and he's not the worst pick of the draft by any means. That dishonor likely belongs to Shawn for drafting Villanova's Kris Jenkins in the second round. Drafting the hero of last year's championship team that returned 3/5 of its staring lineup and earned the #1 overall seed? WHAT AN IDIOT!


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OWNERROUNDSELECTIONPLAYERTEAMSEEDTOTAL_GAMESTOTAL_SCORE
150Chris216Joel Berry IINorth Carolina1123
151Shawn218Kris JenkinsVillanova1123
152
00Zach LoftonTexas Southern16123
153
00Wesley PersonTroy15122.5
154
00Josh PerkinsGonzaga1122
155
00Kyron CartwrightProvidence11121.5
156
00Jaylen JohnsonLouisville2121
157
00Justin TillmanVCU10120.5
158Luke877Canyon BarryFlorida4120
159
00Demontrae JeffersonTexas Southern16120
160
00Christavious GillNew Orleans16119.5
161
00KeVaughn AllenFlorida4119
162
00Justin JacksonMaryland6118
163
00C.J. BryceUNCW12118
164
00Darral Willis Jr.Wichita St10117.5
165Jake873Conner FrankampWichita St10117.5
166
00Marcus FosterCreighton6117
167Jake548Melo TrimbleMaryland6117
168
00Kendall PollardDayton7117
169
00Justin PattonCreighton6116
170
00Reed TellinghuisenSouth Dakota St16115.5
171
00Devon HallVirginia5115
172
00Demetris MorantFlorida Gulf Coast14115
173
00Jeff RobersonVanderbilt9114
174Stu875Carlton BraggKansas1112
175
00Charles CookeDayton7112
176Bob879Ben MooreSMU6110
177
00Desonta BradfordE Tenn St13110
178Gav652Nate MasonMinnesota519
179
00Rickey McGillIona1413


So, who can catch Chris? Luke and myself have the most remaining players, but have the most ground to make up.

CHRIS NEEDS Gonzaga to advance. If his lesser-seeded stars from Florida, Michigan, and South Carolina lose, he'd be best served by an Oregon vs Gonzaga final. KU wins may or may not be good for him, since Lucas may not put up big stats while Mason and Jackson do.

STU NEEDS Purdue to upset KU, and to meet UNC in the Final Four. He really only has 3 active players, since his fourth active player is Carlton Bragg. It's kind of like how George Martin was the fifth Beatle, but he really wasn't a Beatle at all.

BRIAN NEEDS to come to grips with the fact he is completely screwed. KU's Mason will knock out Purdue's Swanigan, or vice versa. And his Gonzaga guy is cancelled out by Chris' Zag. Still, with enough injuries or plane crashes, I suppose Mason could take him to titletown.

JAKE NEEDS Arizona, Kentucky, and KU to reach the Final Four, and his guys on those teams to score very many points.

JAMES NEEDS Xavier to win at least one or two more games, preferably every game. And Kentucky to win on the other side of the bracket.

GAV NEEDS Gonzaga, UNC, and Wisconsin in the Final Four, Wisconsin being the most important for Happ's bonus points.

SHAWN NEEDS Arizona to meet KU in the final. His WV and Kentucky players are more of role players that won't pile up a ton of points.

BOB NEEDS Butler to win big, and also be transferred to another region, and also for UCLA and Kentucky to be split up into other regions. Or, for Independence Day aliens to hover over KC, NYC, and San Jose before unleashing their destruction beam, leaving only the South region players unscathed.

DAN NEEDS Arizona (I've got the PG and the weird Euro forward) to meet UCLA or Oregon in the final. My UNC guy is probably better off eliminated, since UNC also helps Gav, Chris, and Stu.

LUKE NEEDS Baylor to best Canyon Barry and reach the Final Four, beat West Virginia, and attend the championship vs UCLA. UCLA vs KU on the other side of the bracket could be very nice, if his guys have very nice games.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

March Madness Fantasy 2017 - Play-In and First Round

fivethirtyeight.com had given NC Central a 63% chance of beating UC Davis, by far the best odds of any play-in game participant. When I saw that, and the NC Central had a dude that averaged 20 points a game, I knew he'd be my final draft pick. He'd be good for 40 or so points in the play-in game, and then another 30 or so in a meaningless slaughter at the hands of KU.

But ol' Nate Silver was wrong. In fact, their fancy stats incorrectly predicted the winner of 3 of the 4 play-in games.

Still, my play-in man Patrick Cole was not a horrible pick, earning 30 points in his only game.

The only other owned play-in gamers were Jake's Wes Iwundu facing off against Gav's John Collins. 55 and 52 points, respectively, plus Jake got another 38 from Wes' round of 64 loss to Cinci.

Let's take a look at the studs and duds of round one:

OWNER ROUND SELECTION PLAYER TEAM SEED GAME1_SCORE
1 Jake 4 33 Jawun Evans Oklahoma St 10 59.0
2 Shawn 8 78 Jordan Washington Iona 14 49.5
3 Stu 5 46 Bryant McIntosh Northwestern 8 48.0
4 Chris 6 56 Sindarius Thornwell South Carolina 7 46.0
5 Gav 8 72 Miles Bridges Michigan St 9 45.5
6 Chris 8 76 Derrick Walton Jr. Michigan 7 42.0
7 James 6 54 Trevon Bluiett Xavier 11 41.0


With Iwundu and OKST's Jawun Evans, Jake nailed his bonus seed drafting. Kudos also go to Chris, the only person to draft any 7-seeded players, who got two great double-double performances from Michigan and South Carolina's high scorers.


OWNER ROUND SELECTION PLAYER TEAM SEED GAME1_SCORE
1 Chris 2 16 Joel Berry II North Carolina 1 7
2 Jake 8 73 Conner Frankamp Wichita St 10 8
3 Luke 8 77 Canyon Barry Florida 4 9
4 Gav 6 52 Nate Mason Minnesota 5 9
5 Stu 4 35 Bryce Alford UCLA 3 10
6 Bob 8 79 Ben Moore SMU 6 10
7 Stu 8 75 Carlton Bragg Kansas 1 11

Jake had the #1 dud of Connor Frankamp, who hit only one 3, but lives to see another round. The same can be said for Canyon Barry and Joel Berry II, but Gav's Nate Mason will go down as the worst drafted player, worse even than Carlton Bragg.


A bad round for Barrys, Berrys, and Frankampberries!


Me? I didn't have any studs nor duds. Ol' steady John Olerud over here.

Here's the scatterplot that shows each player's total score. Can anyone catch up to Wes Iwundu? Yes, they can and will. Easily:

Wes has catapulted Jake into the catbird seat of yore. Alas, the reaper has come for three of his men, and he has the fewest number of active players remaining. Chris, Stu, and Luke are still at full strength, if you can call teams that feature Carlton Bragg and Canyon Barry as full strength.



While he didn't reach top 7 dud status, Luke got basically nothing from his top pick, Duke's Luke Kennard.



Monday, March 13, 2017

March Madness Fantasy 2017 - The Draft

We had a draft! Whoa!

Brian had the first pick. Despite his lifelong hatred of former KU point guard Russell Robinson, he selected KU's current PG and Player of the Year, I guess, Frank Mason. He also went heavy on brick shithouse forwards.

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
11BrianMW1KansasFrank Mason III
220BrianW3Florida StJonathan Isaac
321BrianMW4PurdueCaleb Swanigan
440BrianE2DukeAmile Jefferson
541BrianS9Seton HallAngel Delgado
660BrianS6CincinnatiKyle Washington
761BrianE13E Tenn StT.J. Cromer
880BrianW1GonzagaJordan Mathews


Last year's champ, Bob, has no one lower than a 6 seed. He has some balance across the regions. He's a real smarty pants.

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
12BobE1VillanovaJosh Hart
219BobS2KentuckyEdrice Adebayo
322BobE2DukeJayson Tatum
439BobMW2LouisvilleDeng Adel
542BobS3UCLAThomas Welsh
659BobS4ButlerKelan Martin
762BobW3Florida StDwayne Bacon
879BobE6SMUBen Moore


Shawn has PED-convicted Arizona guard Allonzo Trier, who I desperately wanted, and two players that get a 1.5x bonus: from Middle Tennessee and Iona. Iona has fucked me over both times I picked them, so Shawn is sure to fail. I mean, check out this Iona coach's face - does this inspire confidence, Shawn?

"You're gonna want to buy that TruCoat!" -- Coach Tim Cluess Jerry Lundegaard

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
13ShawnMW1KansasJosh Jackson
218ShawnE1VillanovaKris Jenkins
323ShawnW2ArizonaAllonzo Trier
438ShawnS2KentuckyIsaiah Briscoe
543ShawnS12Middle TennJacorey Williams
658ShawnW4West VirginiaNathan Adrian
763ShawnE6SMUSterling Brown
878ShawnMW14IonaJordan Washington


We like to kid Luke that he always drafts a team of white nationalists, and then he likes to play along and draft an Aryan Dream Team. But lots of non-whites this year, so it's more like an Aryan Daydream Team.

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
14LukeE2DukeLuke Kennard
217LukeE3BaylorJohnathan Motley
324LukeS3UCLATJ Leaf
437LukeW4West VirginiaJevon Carter
544LukeS10Wichita St.Markis McDuffie
657LukeMW1KansasSviatoslav Mykhailiuk
764LukeW2ArizonaDusan Ristic
877LukeE4FloridaCanyon Barry


Chris was blessed with the middle draft spot, so he could size up how things were unfolding and respond accordingly. Instead, he drafted Landen Lucas in the 3rd round because he likes how he doesn't dunk very much. 

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
15ChrisW1GonzagaNigel Williams-Goss
216ChrisS1North CarolinaJoel Berry II
325ChrisMW1KansasLanden Lucas
436ChrisMW11Rhode IslandHassan Martin
545ChrisMW3OregonJordan Bell
656ChrisE7S. CarolinaSindarius Thornwell
765ChrisE4FloridaDevin Robinson
876ChrisMW7MichiganDerrick Walton Jr.


Stu was doing just fine and then he let his heart decide on his last pick, a guy who will be lucky to score 4 baskets in this tournament. But if Northwestern catches fire, LOOK OUT!

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
16StuS1North CarolinaJustin Jackson
215StuMW5Iowa St.Monte Morris
326StuE2DukeGrayson Allen
435StuS3UCLABryce Alford
546StuW8NorthwesternBryant McIntosh
655StuW5Notre DameV.J. Beachem
766StuMW4PurdueVincent Edwards
875StuMW1KansasCarlton Bragg


James hopes to build off a come-from-behind 3rd-place finish last year with a team should jack a ton of threes, which is fun. 

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
17JamesS2KentuckyMalik Monk
214JamesMW2LouisvilleDonovan Mitchell
327JamesE1VillanovaMikal Bridges
434JamesE6SMUSemi Ojeleye
547JamesMW5Iowa St.Deonte Burton
654JamesW11XavierTrevon Bluiett
767JamesW1GonzagaJohnathan Williams
874JamesS12Middle TennGiddy Potts


Jake has the best named players on his team. Except for Conner Frankamp. He also has the most 1.5x bonus players on a team, with 3. 

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
18JakeS2KentuckyDe'Aaron Fox
213JakeMW1KansasDevonte' Graham
328JakeW5Notre DameBonzie Colson
433JakeMW10Oklahoma St.Jawun Evans
548JakeW6MarylandMelo Trimble
653JakeW2ArizonaRawle Alkins
768JakeS11Kansas St.Wesley Iwundu
873JakeS10Wichita St.Conner Frankamp


Gav has a very tall team. No doubt about it.

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
19GavS1North CarolinaKennedy Meeks
212GavE1VillanovaJalen Brunson
329GavS11Wake ForestJohn Collins
432GavW1GonzagaPrzemek Karnowski
549GavE8WisconsinEthan Happ
652GavS5MinnesotaNate Mason
769GavE3BaylorJo Lual-Acuil Jr.
872GavMW9Michigan St.Miles Bridges


My team is not going to win. For my lsecond-to-last pick, I weighed having fun and drafting a 13-seed player from Winthrop versus not having fun and making a safe pick in the AZ PG. And I went "safe" even though I probably have no chance to win, because my team looks very similar to everybody else's, plus I have slightly worse players than those above me. But hey, I did draft a guy from a 16-seed in the play-in game, so that's fun!

ROUNDSELECTIONOWNERREGIONSEEDTEAMPLAYER
110DanW2ArizonaLauri Markkanen
211DanS3UCLALonzo Ball
330DanS1North CarolinaIsaiah Hicks
431DanMW2LouisvilleQuentin Snider
550DanMW3OregonDillon Brooks
651DanW5Notre DameMatt Farrell
770DanW2ArizonaKadeem Allen
871DanMW16NC CentralPatrick Cole


BY TEAM

KU had the most players drafted, with 6, one more than I put on the spreadsheet, because who the hell would pick a bench player? STU, THAT'S WHO! Arizona was second, with 5 players.


DOUBLES

I was the only guy who picked two players from the same team, which used to be a common thing to do. Now it's only me? Pretty weird, you guys! How smart that the team I doubled up on, Arizona, was also heavily drafted by other owners, meaning my bet on them is less worthwhile!


BY SEED

18 1-seed, 16 2-seed, 10 3-seed, 7 4-seed, 6 5-seed, 5 6-seed, and 2 7-seed players.

16 "bonus" players from seeds 8-16, including 2 each from Wichita State and Middle Tenn St.


BY REGION

22 S
21 MW
19 W
18 E

Everyone except Jake and I have a player from each region - we both lack a player from the East. 

Chris has 4 from the Midwest region, which is the most from a single region.