Monday, March 31, 2014

March Madness Fantasy 2014 - Elite 8 Results

First, let’s talk about the Sweet Sixteen round. 

Ben had two top performers, both in losing efforts. As predicted, Hogue did benefit from Niang’s absence, and scored a lot of points in a loss for Joe, who also got a big Branden Dawson performance. Stu owned two of the worst players, with Brady Heslip and Keith Appling combining for 10 points. Appling may be the turd of the tourney. Nine drafted players scored fewer points than him, but almost all of them only lasted one game. Drafted #21 overall, he scored 21 points over 4 games, including zero points in the Elite 8 game (due to subtraction for turnovers); that’s the same point total Shane Southwell earned in this tourney. That stinks, and that’s why he’s the Turd of the Tourney ©.

Gav had two of the seven top studs in the Elite Eight.

Overall, 6 of the top 10 scorers so far were owned players, and Dan had two of them. 

Unfortunately for him, he drafted two huge duds: Sean Kilpatrick and Kendall Williams, who combined for 29 points in their first-round exits. 

Gav picked 4 Elite Eight players, like Dan, and his worst pick was a bonus player who grabbed 29.5 points in his loss. 

So, combining those “good” bad picks with Julius Randle, bonus point earner extraordinaire who should become the overall top point scorer on Saturday, Gav in the driver’s seat to win this thing. (This marks the second straight year that Gav has picked a 1.5x-earning player who reached the Final Four; last year he had Wichita State’s Carl Hall.)

What an amazing draft for Gavin. Let’s remember - this guy put together a stud-filled team against all odds. He was on his phone because he couldn’t find his girlfriend’s wifi password, and eating dinner, and not comprehending which players were already drafted and which were still available. This could be the greatest evidence yet that an infinite number of monkeys working for an infinite number of years would type the works of Shakespeare.

Dan 635.5
Gav 629.5

Despite being 6 points behind, Vegas favors Gavin to win it all. Randle’s bonus earnings are an obvious advantage. Dan needs Randle to break his leg, get caught doing something so incredibly illegal that the school or NCAA would suspend him, or even just play basketball very poorly -- something that would cause Wisconsin to advance to the final. However, while Dan’s best scorer, Frank Kaminsky, accumulates points, so will Gav’s other remaining player, point guard Traevon Jackson, his final pick of the draft. 

Dan’s other remaining player, Michael Frazier II, is not one of Florida’s primary threats, and though he has scored a high of 19 in this tourney and a high of 37 (11/18 3-pointers!) this season, he is likely to add only 10 or 12 points per remaining game.

The remaining standings:
Joe 547.5
Both Michigan State players reached the 100 point plateau. If Sam Dekker is the only person on the court for the next two games, victory is within reach for Joe.

Ben 501
All out of active players, since Gav drafted all the good ones for himself and picked Ben a team full of Average Adams.

Bob 493
My 'Zona bro did pretty well considering he entered my house minutes before the draft began, and his research took place while waiting for Gav to make his picks.

Brian 485
I thought Daniels over Boatright was a bad choice, but Daniels has been great, scoring 25 more points than the UConn guard.

Chuck 455
Not a lot to say, Chuck. Three really good players was not enough. Not even close. Tyler Ennis is going pro, though, so that should be good for a laugh.

Chris 370.5
Hey, so it didn't work out. Shabazz Napier, though!

Shawn 340
The difference between the first Florida player selected, Prather (#2 overall), and the last, Michael Frazier II (#25 overall), is 6 points. A great team with balanced scoring, folks.

Stu 234
Yuck. Gross. Hope you had fun, Stu! Better luck next year!

Here is a graph that kinda makes sense. This is among all players on the spreadsheet, so basically all decent players from all seeds, drafted or not. You can see that the median score is 36, so if you drafted anyone that scored less than that you've got a loser on your team.

I will post the final results on Tuesday, after Monday's championship.

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